The African aviation sector continues to evolve, reflecting the continent’s diverse economic, infrastructural, and regulatory landscapes. Recent data from April 2025, sourced from OAG.com – Schedule Analyser with data extracted in the Africa Aviation Market report, provides a comprehensive snapshot of international and domestic capacity across African regions, airlines, airports, and markets. This analysis delves into the trends by region, identifies the local factors driving these outcomes, examines why Central and Western Africa are underperforming, and highlights lessons from top-performing regions that could guide the broader industry toward sustainable growth.
Regional Capacity Trends: A Mixed Picture
North Africa: A Dominant Force
North Africa leads the continent in seat capacity, with 6,235,658 seats in April 2025, marking a 6.4% increase from 5,858,097 in 2024. Egypt and Morocco are key drivers, with Egypt alone contributing 2,646,409 seats (+5.9%) and Morocco adding 1,868,701 seats (+8.4%). Cairo International Airport (CAI) remains the busiest hub, with 1,560,047 seats (+3.5%), while Casablanca (CMN) and Marrakech (RAK) in Morocco also show strong growth at 9.9% and 5.4%, respectively.
The region’s success is underpinned by several factors:
• Robust Infrastructure: North African airports, particularly in Egypt and Morocco, benefit from modern facilities and advanced air traffic management systems. Cairo International, for instance, leverages its strategic location as a gateway between Africa, Europe, and the Middle East.
• Tourism and Trade: Both countries are major tourist destinations, with Morocco’s cultural appeal and Egypt’s historical landmarks driving consistent demand. Additionally, North Africa’s proximity to Europe supports strong international connectivity.
• Stable Regulatory Environment: Egypt and Morocco have relatively predictable regulatory frameworks, enabling airlines like Egyptair and Royal Air Maroc to plan and execute schedules effectively.
Eastern Africa: Steady Growth
Eastern Africa recorded 3,633,324 seats in April 2025, a 7.9% increase from 3,367,000 in 2024. Ethiopia and Kenya lead the region, with Ethiopia’s capacity at 1,297,157 seats (+17.3%) and Kenya at 828,631 seats (+6.9%). Addis Ababa (ADD) is the region’s busiest airport, with 1,079,272 seats (+10.4%).
Key contributors to Eastern Africa’s performance include:
• Hub Strategy: Ethiopia’s Addis Ababa Bole International Airport serves as a major hub for Ethiopian Airlines, which dominates the region with 1,875,274 seats (+2.2%). The airline’s hub-and-spoke model facilitates efficient connectivity across Africa and beyond.
• Investment in Infrastructure: Ethiopia has invested heavily in airport expansion, with Bole International now capable of handling increased traffic. Kenya’s Jomo Kenyatta International Airport (NBO) also benefits from upgrades, though its capacity dipped slightly (-0.1%).
• Economic Growth: Rising GDP in Ethiopia and Kenya supports increased business and leisure travel demand, further bolstered by tourism in Kenya (e.g., safari destinations).
Southern Africa: Consistent Gains
Southern Africa saw a 7.9% rise in capacity, from 2,695,724 seats in 2024 to 2,909,122 in 2025. South Africa dominates with 2,140,439 seats (+9.4%), and Johannesburg (JNB) is the region’s top airport, handling 1,036,660 seats (+6.7%). Cape Town (CPT) also grew, with 500,614 seats (+8.4%).
Southern Africa’s performance is driven by:
• Advanced Infrastructure: South Africa’s airports, managed by Airports Company South Africa (ACSA), are among the continent’s best, with modern facilities and efficient air traffic control systems. This supports airlines like FlySafair, which boasts a 93.82% on-time performance (OTP).
• Operational Excellence: FlySafair’s streamlined operations, including fleet commonality (all-Boeing 737-800) and data-driven decision-making, set a benchmark for reliability.
• Tourism and Business Hub: South Africa’s appeal as a tourist destination and its status as a business hub drive demand, supporting consistent capacity growth.
Central/Western Africa: A Concerning Decline
Central and Western Africa is the only region to see a decline, dropping 7.8% from 2,696,975 seats in 2024 to 2,764,277 in 2025. Nigeria, the region’s largest market, experienced a significant 17.3% decrease, from 1,056,530 to 855,353 seats.
This underperformance stems from multiple local factors:
• Infrastructure Deficiencies: Nigerian airports, such as Lagos (LOS), suffer from chronic under-capacity, aging facilities, and inefficiencies in air traffic control (ATC). Coverage, staffing, and communication issues exacerbate delays.
• Operational Challenges: Nigerian airlines, with an average OTP of 48%, face maintenance delays, poor scheduling, and diverse fleets that complicate operations. The lack of investment in predictive analytics and recovery planning further hampers performance.
• External Disruptions: Frequent fuel shortages, strikes, and weather-related issues disrupt operations more than in other regions. For instance, fuel scarcity often grounds flights, leading to cancellations.
• Regulatory Instability: Inconsistent enforcement and reactive regulatory policies create unpredictable operating conditions, making it difficult for airlines to maintain schedules.
• Economic Pressures: Nigeria’s economic challenges, including inflation and currency fluctuations, reduce consumer travel demand and strain airline finances, limiting investment in operational improvements.
Why Central/Western Africa Underperforms
The 7.8% decline in Central/Western Africa, particularly Nigeria’s 17.3% drop, highlights systemic issues that go beyond isolated incidents. Infrastructure constraints are a primary driver—airports lack the capacity to handle growing traffic, and ATC inefficiencies lead to frequent delays. Nigerian airlines also struggle with operational inefficiencies, as seen in their low OTP of 48%, a stark contrast to regional leaders like FlySafair (93.82%). The absence of fleet standardization increases maintenance costs and downtime, while limited adoption of data-driven tools hinders proactive disruption management.
External factors compound these challenges. Fuel shortages and strikes are more frequent in Nigeria than in South Africa, where such disruptions are isolated. Regulatory inconsistency further destabilizes operations, as airlines face sudden policy shifts that disrupt planning. Economic factors also play a role—Nigeria’s high inflation and currency depreciation reduce passenger demand and limit airlines’ ability to invest in modernisation.
Lessons from Top-Performing Regions
North, Eastern, and Southern Africa offer valuable lessons for underperforming regions like Central/Western Africa:
1. Invest in Infrastructure and Partnerships
South Africa’s advanced airport facilities and air navigation services demonstrate the importance of infrastructure in supporting airline performance. Central/Western African countries, particularly Nigeria, should prioritize airport upgrades and foster collaborative partnerships with regulators and ground handlers to improve efficiency. Joint initiatives to reduce congestion and enhance ATC could yield significant improvements.
2. Adopt Operational Best Practices
FlySafair’s success in Southern Africa highlights the power of operational precision. Nigerian airlines can emulate practices like fleet commonality, quick turnarounds, and data-driven decision-making. Standardizing fleets, even gradually, can reduce maintenance complexity, while predictive analytics can help anticipate and mitigate disruptions.
3. Leverage Regional Strengths
Eastern Africa’s growth, driven by Ethiopia’s hub strategy, shows how leveraging geographic and economic strengths can boost capacity. Central/Western Africa, with Nigeria’s large population and strategic location, could develop Lagos as a regional hub by improving infrastructure and attracting international carriers.
4. Prioritize Regulatory Stability
North Africa’s stable regulatory environment enables airlines to plan effectively. Central/Western Africa needs consistent policies and proactive oversight to create a predictable operating landscape, encouraging investment and operational improvements.
5. Focus on Cultural Transformation
FlySafair’s performance-oriented culture, where punctuality is a core value, offers a model for Nigerian carriers. Aligning staff incentives with OTP goals and embedding reliability into corporate culture can drive long-term improvements.
Opportunities for Growth
The data also reveals broader trends worth noting. Airlines like Safar (+22.6%) and Emirates (+10.8%) show significant growth, indicating a rising demand for low-cost and premium travel options. Airports like Addis Ababa (+10.4%) and Johannesburg (+6.7%) are capitalizing on this demand through expansion and operational efficiency. However, the decline in Kenya Airways’ capacity (-19.0%) suggests that even established carriers face challenges if they fail to adapt to market dynamics.
Central/Western Africa, despite its current struggles, has immense potential. Nigeria’s population of over 200 million represents a vast untapped market. Addressing systemic issues—through public-private partnerships for infrastructure development, adoption of technology, and regulatory reform—could unlock this potential, positioning the region as a key player in African aviation.
The April 2025 data underscores the disparities in African aviation capacity, with North, Eastern, and Southern Africa leading, while Central/Western Africa lags. Local factors like infrastructure, operational practices, and regulatory stability play a significant role in these outcomes. By learning from top performers—investing in infrastructure, adopting best practices, and fostering collaboration—underperforming regions can close the gap. The path to operational excellence exists, as demonstrated by FlySafair and Ethiopian Airlines. The question for Central/Western Africa, particularly Nigeria, is whether it will commit to the systemic changes needed to realise its potential and strengthen its position in the African aviation landscape.
Disclaimer: The insights shared in this article are for informational purposes only and do not constitute strategic advice. Aviation markets and circumstances vary, and decisions should be based on your organization’s specific context. For tailored consultancy, contact info@avaerocapital.com.
