What the Data Is Really Telling Us
Over the past few weeks, we have been analysing Nigeria’s domestic aviation market through the lens of capacity, operating conditions and pricing outcomes, using OAG Africa December 2025 data alongside industry evidence.
The analysis is presented in three connected parts, each building on the previous one:
- Part 1 looks at the data — what capacity and pricing figures actually show, and what they do not show.
- Part 2 explains the mechanism — why fares rise as capacity tightens, even without collusion or sudden cost shocks.
- Part 3 focuses on solutions — what has to change at system level if domestic air travel is to become more affordable and predictable over time.
Together, the three pieces explain why repeated debates about fares miss the root cause, and why sustainable affordability depends on fixing the operating environment that determines how many aircraft can actually fly.
Analysis
1️⃣ What Nigeria’s aviation capacity and pricing data is really telling us
→ Read here > What Nigeria’s Aviation Capacity and Pricing Data Is Really Telling Us
Diagnosis
2️⃣ The Nigerian Aviation Contraction Loop
→ Read here > The Nigerian Aviation Contraction Loop
Solutions
1️⃣ Breaking the Nigerian Aviation Contraction Loop
→ Read here > Breaking the Nigerian Aviation Contraction Loop
About the Author
Sindy Foster is Principal Managing Partner at Avaero Capital Partners, an aviation advisory firm focused on strategy, economics and operating performance across African and emerging aviation markets.
Her work centres on the structural drivers of airline performance — including capacity, pricing, operational resilience and system design. She advises airlines, investors and public-sector stakeholders on translating operating constraints into sustainable commercial outcomes.
Disclaimer: The insights in these articles are for informational purposes only and do not constitute strategic advice. Aviation markets and circumstances vary, and decisions should be based on your organization’s specific context. For tailored consultancy, contact info@avaerocapital.com.
